Analisis Model Rantai Markov Waktu Kontinu pada Model Transmisi dan Vaksinasi COVID-19: Studi Kasus Provinsi DKI Jakarta

  • Rifaldy Atlant Tungga Institut Teknologi Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie
Abstract views: 65 , PDF (Bahasa Indonesia) downloads: 36
Keywords: Continues Time Markov Chain, COVID-19, SIRV, Transition Probability, DKI Jakarta

Abstract

In 2019, the Novel Coronavirus was discovered in Wuhan, China, and later named the disease caused by the virus, called COVID-19. On March 31, 2020, the Indonesian government announced that COVID-19 was a pandemic. Previously, many mathematical models have been used to capture the transmission of this disease. In this paper, a new mathematical model is introduced, namely the continuous-time Markov chain modeling of SIRV, which takes into account the probabilities between events of several groups of individuals, namely the susceptible (S), infected (I), recovered (R), and vaccinated (V) groups. Thus, it is considered to provide more realistic results compared to deterministic models. Using a period of approximately one year, it was obtained that vaccination carried out with a vaccination rate ν=0.002 was considered ineffective.

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References

Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi DKI Jakarta. (2021). Data Pemantauan COVID-19 DKI Jakarta. 21 Juni 2021. https://corona.jakarta.go.id/id.

Kementrian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia, (2020). Kiprah Ditjen Kesmas Pandemi COVID19. https://kesmas.kemkes.go.id/assets/uploads/contents/others/Kiprah_ Ditjen_Kesmas_Pandemi_COVID19_web.pdf.

Komite Penanganan COVID-19 dan Pemulihan Ekonomi Nasional. (2021). Vaksinasi COVID-19. Jakarta

Tungga, R. A., Sa’adah, A., Safira, A. K., Fahlena, H., Mariani., Arsana, M., Prihantini., & Zahra, U. U. (2022). Analysis of the implementation of COVID-19 vaccination program in DKI Jakarta province, Indonesia. AIP Conf. Proc. 2 August 2022; 2498 (1): 020002. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0083280.

World Health Organization, (2020). Hal-hal yang perlu Anda ketahui tentang corona virus untuk melindungi Anda dan keluarga. https://www.unicef.org/indonesia/id/coronavirus/tanya-jawab-seputar-coronavirus.

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Published
2024-01-25
How to Cite
Tungga, R. A. (2024). Analisis Model Rantai Markov Waktu Kontinu pada Model Transmisi dan Vaksinasi COVID-19: Studi Kasus Provinsi DKI Jakarta. Jurnal Simki Postgraduate, 3(1), 27-35. https://doi.org/10.29407/jspg.v3i1.566